Vegas Football Odds

Sunday Night Football betting Preview, Vikings vs. Packers
2010-10-23

It’s Brett Favre’s second return trip to Green Bay, but this time he’s more vulnerable with his on-field elbow problems and his off-field sexting allegations. Sportsbook.com currently has the Vikings vs. Packers point spread holding steady at Green Bay -2.5 points.

After torching the Packers a year ago, Favre is still getting his legs under him in 2010, especially with Randy Moss working his way into the lineup. Look for Minnesota to ride Adrian Peterson instead, especially since the Packers are more susceptible to the run with ILB Nick Barnett out for the year. Miami rumbled for 150 yards in its win over Green Bay last week.

Favre has been incredible in his two games against Green Bay, completing 70 percent of his passes for 515 yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions. Moss (nine rec., 136 yds, 1 TD with Minnesota this year) has also shredded the Pack with 66 catches for 1,243 yards and 12 TD in 13 career meetings. RB Adrian Peterson has also enjoyed facing his rival with 604 rushing yards and four touchdowns in six games against Green Bay. If Minnesota can win the turnover battle (minus-5 ratio) and keep the Packers’ excellent pass rush (21 sacks) at bay, it could be a long day for the Cheeseheads.

The Packers have lost their last two home games and last four games overall ATS. Aaron Rodgers has thrown seven interceptions and has been sacked 14 times already this year. But there is hope for an injury-riddled Green Bay team that was missing eight starters against Miami. CB Al Harris (left knee) and safety Atari Bigby (left ankle) both plan to play Sunday night for the first time this season. NFL sack leader LB Clay Matthews is also expected to suit up after sitting out last week’s game with a left hamstring injury.

The Vikings are 11-8 ATS (7-12 SU) at Green Bay since 1992 and this NFL betting trend uncovered at Sportsbook.com shows why Minnesota is the pick on Sunday night.

Play On - Road teams (MINNESOTA) - slow starting offensive team - scoring 7 or less PPG in the first half, after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games.

(202-133 since 1983.) (60.3%, +55.7 units. Rating = 2*).<P>

Sportsbook.com currently has the Vikings vs. Packer total handicapped at 44.5 points. And after reading the following football betting trends, it is easy to see why the majority of the bettors are backing the ‘over’.

MINNESOTA is 20-6 OVER (76.9%, +13.4 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. since 1992. The average score was MINNESOTA 25.3, OPPONENT 29.2 - (Rating = 2*).

Play Over - Any team against the total (GREEN BAY) - after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games. (106-57 since 1983.) (65%, +43.3 units. Rating = 2*).

Now that you have the key numbers for tonight’s game, head over to Sportsbook.com to wager on this game or to simply check out all of the NFL Week 7 betting odds.

NFL: GREEN BAY vs. ARIZONA (4:30 PM ET, FOX)
2010-01-09

Green Bay makes its third trip to Arizona since August when the Packers and Cardinals go head-to-head to wrap up the wildcard round. On both previous occasions, once in the preseason, the Packers jumped out to a huge lead, and just this past Sunday, led 26-0 at the half before finishing off a 33-7 win. Experts & bettors alike seem love the Packers, despite the fact that Arizona is the defending NFC champ. At last check on the Sportsbook.com Betting Trends page, 85% of bettors were on the side of the Packers, and the line had moved from Arizona -2.5 to a pick em’.

Arizona finished 10-6, and Green Bay 11-5, yet it is the Cardinals that are field goal favorites at presstime, as they look for a second straight NFC title. HC Ken Whisenhunt’s team was just 4-4 SU & ATS at home in ’09, but is 9-1 ATS at home when coming off a loss in his tenure. Green Bay boasts a 22-9 ATS mark under Mike McCarthy on the road including 6-0 ATS vs. NFC West teams. The Packers haven’t played a road playoff game since after the ’03 season.

Forget the 26-point win as a statement game for Green Bay, because Arizona pulled Kurt Warner in the first quarter then watched as backups Matt Leinart and Brian St. Pierre completed 15 of 25 passes for 108 yards with three interceptions.

No team in the NFC is on a roll quite like the Packers, who won seven of their last eight thanks in large part to the improved protection of Aaron Rodgers and better production by Ryan Grant in the second half of the season (632 yards, seven scores). Rodgers, sacked 37 times in the first eight games, was sacked just 13 times in the last eight and guided the offense to an average of 30.7 points.

The Cardinals didn’t offer the same type of scoring consistency down the stretch, posting more than 30 points three times in the last five games and less than 10 points twice. Green Bay’s defense ranked second in the NFL in total yards (284.5), but despite the presence of cornerback Charles Woodson (nine interceptions, four forced fumbles, three touchdowns) still struggled against the pass. Teams completed 49 throws of more than 20 yards, and Green Bay allowed more receiving touchdowns than only three teams. It’s not exactly a match made in heaven, considering four Arizona players notched at least 50 catches.

It’s also worth noting the Packers are back on the road, where four of their five wins came against teams below .500, and the fifth was against the depleted Cardinals.
But of all the stats that will be thrown around leading up to the wild-card matchup, here are a few that stick out the most—Green Bay is just 3-7 in its last 10 playoff games and dropped three straight on the road.

Arizona, meanwhile, boasts nearly the same team that took the long route to last season’s Super Bowl, winning three playoff games before falling to Pittsburgh.

PREDICTION: Warner, a playoff veteran, is 8-3 all-time in the postseason with three Super Bowl appearances (one win). Rodgers, on the other hand, makes his playoff debut. The experience factor makes the difference. ARIZONA 24, GREEN BAY 17

NFL: GREEN BAY at MINNESOTA (8:35 PM ET, ESPN)
2009-10-05

The game everyone has been waiting for has taken on added significance because of its importance in the NFC North race. Green Bay & Minnesota will be playing for more than just Brett Favre when they get together on Monday. Betting action figures to be brisk on this game, and Sportsbook.com has all the options for you including pointspreads, totals, and props. See the latest prices on the LIVE ODDS page.

The Vikings are 3-0, thanks in large part to Favre’s last second heroics last week. They have won five straight games as divisional hosts but are 2-3 ATS in that span. They are also just 3-9 ATS in their L12 at home overall. The Packers are 2-1, playing a second straight road game before being off next week. They are 17-7 ATS on the road under Mike McCarthy and 14-5 ATS in divisional games. This head-to-head series has seen some significant trends, particularly the games in Minnesota, where dogs are on a 13-3 ATS run, and the OVER is 6-1.
The Vikings may not have ranked at the top of Green Bay’s rivalry list—that’s probably been reserved by the Bears for decades—but the addition of quarterback Brett Favre certainly catapults Minnesota at least to rival 1a. The two teams have met 95 times, and the Packers own a 49-45-1 edge, including victories in six straight. It’s unlikely, however, that any of the prior meetings had as much emotion on the line.

Minnesota’s offense is slowly rounding into form with Favre, the future Hall of Famer, running the show. Though his numbers are well below those of his Green Bay career, last week’s game-winning 32-yard touchdown pass to Greg Lewis with 0:02 to play shows he can still pinpoint a target. Adrian Peterson has been a nightmare for the Packers defense—he ran for 295 yards and two touchdowns in last year’s two meetings—and continues to punish every opponent. Back near the top of the leaderboard in rushing yards (357) and touchdowns (four), Peterson takes aim at a Green Bay defense that was torched for 141 yards by Cedric Benson in Week 2 and 117 more by Steven Jackson in last week’s 36-17 win at St. Louis. Defense, in general, is becoming an issue for Green Bay, though the most important area that needs to be addressed is on the other side of the ball.

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who replaced Favre, finds himself on the move more than a taxi driver in rush hour. Sacked 12 times already, limited time in the pocket has taken the deep completion, a staple of the offense given the youth at wide receiver, almost out of the playbook. Greg Jennings, the biggest home run threat, was held without a catch by Cincinnati in Week 2, but returned to the scorebook with two grabs for 103 yards in St. Louis.

Given the state of the Minnesota run defense—it’s been nothing short of phenomenal, allowing an average of just 91.3 yards per game—most teams are often forced to move the ball through the air. But the Vikings secondary can be just as tight as the line. It allowed just 188 yards passing in last week’s 27-24 win over San Francisco.

A late bloomer in terms of his career and a late starter during the season, Ryan Grant continues to struggle on the ground, and some of the problems can be attributed to the issues with the line.

PREDICTION
The Vikings will have no trouble keeping the Packers at arm’s length, much like the sixth-grade bully picking on a third-grader. The losing skid against Green Bay ends, and a once formidable enemy stamps his allegiance as a new best friend.
MINNESOTA 33, GREEN BAY 24

NFL Playoff Statistical Analysis
2009-01-15

Here is a list of NFL playoff trends that have proven successful to follow or fade in recent years. All of these angles reflect the teams’ current statistics, including the playoff games of ’09. The records for the ’09 playoffs of each angle are also given along with the qualifying teams for this week’s games.

Keep in mind that these are purely raw stat based angles and don’t take into account any other betting scenarios, such as line range, situational factors, or experience. Using various stats, here are 18 different playoff betting trends that have produced either better than 55% or worse than 45% results.

Scoring
• Home teams scoring 26.0 PPG or more are just 14-21 ATS (40%)
Record in ’09: 2-1 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: AGAINST Arizona
• Home teams allowing less than 17 PPG are 22-17 ATS (56.4%)
Record in ’09: 1-1 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Pittsburgh
• Road teams allowing less than 17 PPG are 19-11 ATS (63.3%)
Record in ’09: 2-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore
• Home teams outscoring their opponents by less than 5.0 PPG on the season are 8-14 ATS (36.4%)
Record in ’09: 1-2 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: AGAINST Arizona

Rushing Stats
• Teams that run for more yards per attempt on the season and are an underdog are 25-19 ATS (56.8%)
Record in ’09: 1-3 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore
• Home teams that average 106 RYPG or less are 15-5 ATS (75.0%)
Record in ’09: 2-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Arizona, Pittsburgh
• Road teams that average 136 RYPG or more are 13-10 ATS (56.5%)
Record in ’09: 2-1 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore
• Teams that allow fewer rushing yards per attempt on the season are 52-38 ATS (57.8%).
Record in ’09: 7-1 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Pittsburgh, Philadelphia
• Road teams that allow 3.90 YPR or fewer are 27-11 ATS (71.1%)
Record in ’09: 3-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore, Philadelphia
• Road teams that allow fewer than 100.0 RYPG are 25-14 ATS (64.1%)
Record in ’09: 4-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore, Philadelphia

Passing Stats
• Teams that pass for more yards per attempt on the season and are an underdog are 20-15 ATS (57.1%)
Record in ’09: 2-3 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Arizona
• Home teams that gain more than 7.40 yards per pass attempt or more on the season are just 9-17 ATS (34.6%)
Record in ’09: 2-2 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: AGAINST Arizona
• Teams that pass for more yards per game on the season and are an underdog are 22-16 ATS (57.9%)
Record in ’09: 3-2 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Arizona
• Home teams that allow 192.0 PYPG or fewer are 11-16 ATS (40.7%)
Record in ’09: 1-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: AGAINST Pittsburgh

Yards Per Play Stats
• Road teams that yield 4.90 yards per play or fewer on defense are 17-5 ATS (77.2%)
Record in ’09: 4-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore, Philadelphia
• Home teams outgaining their opponents by 1.00 or more yards per play are just 2-9 ATS (18.2%)
Record in ’09: 1-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: AGAINST Pittsburgh
• Road teams outgaining their opponents by 0.25 or more yards per play on the season are 15-7 ATS (68.2%)
Record in ’09: 5-2 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore, Philadelphia

Turnover Stats
• Road teams that enjoyed a turnover differential of more than +1.00 per game on the season are 8-2 ATS (80%)
Record in ’09: 0-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore

NFL: AFC East Lead on the Line (8:15 PM ET, NFL Network)
2008-11-13

First place in the AFC East is up for grabs Thursday night when the New York Jets and New England Patriots renew one of the emerging rivalries in the NFL. Both teams are 6-3 and fans and sports bettors have more storylines to follow than As the World Turns. New England would have what amounts to a two-game lead in the tiebreaker, giving them the edge with six games left. New York would have a lesser advantage, nevertheless, both teams have similar schedules the rest of the way and the Jets have one more home game than the Patriots.

The Jets(5-4 ATS) had a historic first half against St. Louis last week, scoring on each of their seven possessions to build a 40-point lead, en route to a 47-3 victory. Their defense forced four turnovers, returning one for a touchdown, and kicker Jay Feely hit field goals of 22, 49, 46 and 55 yards. Feely had 17 points a week after getting 14 in a win at Buffalo, and running back Thomas Jones totaled 149 yards and scored three times.

With most of their starters rested in the fourth quarter, the Jets shouldn’t have any issues dealing with the short work week. Perhaps it’ll help them snap a longstanding funk against New England, which has captured 11 of the last 12 meetings, including a 2006 playoff game and a 19-10 decision in Week 2 of this season. New York is 11-2 ATS as road underdog off a double digit cover against and opponent who is won and covered last week.

Coach Eric Mangini has become obsessed with wanting to beat his former mentor. Since signing with the Jets, Bill Belichick turned his back on Mangini, basically disregarding him as a person for going to division foe. Mangini was taken aback by most insiders and has made it his personal mission to win the AFC East and stick it to his former boss. Since beating the Patriots in New England 17-14 two seasons ago, Mangini and the Flyboys have lost four in a row, getting no closer than nine points. New York is 1-7 ATS after scoring 30 or more points in their previous game.

The Patriots (5-4 ATS) come off an impressive 20-10 victory over the free-falling Bills. Running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who began the season fourth on the depth chart, had 105 yards and one touchdown as head coach Belichick’s offense continues to find a suitable ball carrier. Quarterback Matt Cassel (23 of 34, 234 yards) ran an efficient offense that soaked up more than 37 minutes of clock, and the defense held Buffalo without a touchdown until inside of two minutes. That win raised the Pats record to 11-3 ATS after two or more consecutive wins against the spread.

The Cassel vs. Brett Favre matchup is good stuff. This is why the Jets acquired Favre for games just like this. They want his veteran leadership and savvy to make it through the rough spots. Favre however, has regressed in terms of playing under control this season with 12 interceptions. The New England coaching staff has learned Cassel is much more effective throwing the short ball and has adjusted their offense to match his talents, getting the ball to Wes Welker and Randy Moss more efficiently. The Patriots are 10-1 ATS off a win and cover, having gone Under the total two games in a row and playing division opponent.

Sportsbook.com has New England as three-point favorite with total of 41.5. The host team is just 2-16 ATS in these meetings.

New England is facing a much more confident Jones and Brett Favre than it did Sept. 14. Jones has seven touchdowns in the last five games, and Favre has hit on 33 of his last 47 pass attempts with only one interception. New York has the No. 5 rushing defense in the NFL (76.4 yards per game), thanks to Kris Jenkins being stout in the middle of the 3-4 defense and withstanding constant double-teams at the point of attack. The Patriots have won recently with massive time-of-possession advantages that won't be possible against the Jets if they can't run. The Jets have covered five of their last seven road games.

The Patriots are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 tilts following a win. They will need to confuse Favre into mistakes and have Cassel continue to manage the game and provide ball protection.

The NFL Network will once again broadcast this Thursday night showcase starting at 8:15 Eastern.

StatFox Forecaster – N.Y. Jets covers
StatFox Power Line – New England by 7
StatFox Outplay Factor- New England by 2

NFL - Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
2007-11-30

The road team has dominated the AFC North rivalry between Cincinnati and Pittsburgh in recent years, winning seven straight games outright & ATS. The Steelers hope to halt that trend when they host the Bengals on the NBC Sunday night feature.

Even though Pittsburgh has been dominant at home and the Bengals have been inconsistent, this is no cinch wager as Cincy is off its most complete effort of the season, a 35-6 whipping of Tennessee. In fact, in back-to-back games, HC Marvin Lewis’ club has gotten it together offensively. Outscored by just 1 PPG, the Bengals might be the NFL’s best 4-7 team, if there is such a thing. Plus, they are on a nice run of 17-7 ATS on the road. The Steelers are 24-10 in December home games but 3-5 ATS in L8 as a divisional host.

The Bengals defy explanation. An offense led by the prolific talents of QB Carson Palmer and boosted by the skills of some of the best position players in the game should present a more thorough offensive front, but averaging less than 85 rushing yards per game has allowed the opposition to focus on the receivers and create turnovers that will kill any team in the league. Match that with what may be the worst defensive effort in the NFL and Cincy’s 4-7 SU (4-6-1 ATS) no longer seems shocking.

The Steelers have the commodities to rank as one of the elite programs in the professional ranks, but the inability to destroy lesser competition has left daunting questions. Get away from home and suddenly RB Willie Parker struggles to lead. The return of QB Ben Roethlisberger is worthy of note, but the loss of WR Santonio Holmes could prove to be the most concerning injury few are discussing. The defense is capable, the offense can dominate, and all that is lacking is consistency. Find that and the sky is the limit.

Keys to the Game
All signs point to Pittsburgh blowing out Cincinnati. Unbeaten at home, the usual raucous Steelers crowd and Cincinnati working as a struggling club with more frailties then an episode of Brothers and Sisters shows why. Palmer’s play has matched his team’s output, throwing too many interceptions and having receivers whip heads around on errant passes. The home team is a dreadful 1-10 ATS in this bitter AFC battle and Pittsburgh is 2-7-1 ATS when favored by 6.5 or more points.

Trends
~ Cincinnati is 17-7-2 ATS on the road (1-3-1 ATS this season).
~ Pittsburgh is 24-10 ATS as December home chalk.